Profit in Your PALM?
Can PALM play today bring profit for us? Click the chart to enlarge.
 
I believe it’s safe to buy puts or short if PALM today can’t break a $15 price. William’s %R is still not in an oversold condition so there’s still probability for PALM to go minus for today. As usual, this is only for day trade, not sure where the market is heading since we already tried to break 13100 barrier for 3 days in a row without success.
Trading Ideas for August 22th
Not much trading ideas right now unless Dow Jones can trade above the resistance line that I’ve drew for the last couple of days. Asia is mostly green and so does Europe at the time of this writing (around 4 AM EST). There will be two scenario, Dow Jones opened up above 13100 line and stay there, and the other option will be Dow Jones opened up AT the 13100 line and showing weakness to close lower.
If the first scenario panned out, I’m going to buy some DIA calls and keep it for several days because Dow still have another resistance above 13100 level (refer to this chart). If Dow is showing some weakness, I’m going to enter DIA puts for day trade. Unlike previous days, today I’m going to write my trading activity live for everyone to see.
See you at the market opening! PS: Still eye-ing for some weakness in BSC, AAPL is also on the verge to either go down or go up, today’s market action will decide
A Rough Day
I was right (well, many are right) that The Fed’s decision to slash its rate on discount window isn’t the cure that the market is expecting and Dow closes down around 30 points in a pretty low volatility session.
Out from 3 trade idea that I posted here, I only execute two of them which is the solar play WFR and SPWR. I didn’t short BSC because it didn’t gap up today nor does the Dow. Out of that two, I got burned a lot by SPWR because apparently it failed to break its pretty minor bearish resistance level. Nonetheless, I’m still keeping my eyes on this stock because it can break that resistance anytime soon and will jump back and trade above its med-term bullish support.
Two impulse trade saved my portfolio today and avoid losses (I manage to get some profit for pocket change). AMZN break its 2 weeks trading range, bought Sept ‘07 75 call @ $3.9 and sold it for $4.5 (the weird thing is, the stock closed higher than when I sold the options but the closing options price is a lot lower now @ $3.4 — does the Theta sink in that fast?). And playing some quick buck on INTC (bought it when the stock hits -1.5%, sold it around -0.5%). I’m going to post more trade ideas (only for day trading — the market hasn’t trending now) later today or early tomorrow morning.
Another Quick Solar Play 21th Augustus
At the time of this writing, Europe is bouncing back a bit and many are in the green. I’m still uncertain about the long-term market outlook so this will be another short-term play (1-5 days max). So here it goes, I’m going to get long on SPWR (I believe will break its short term bearish trend) and WFR (back into trading range). The chart tells you all the story as usual, just click to enlarge. Again on this kind of play, as soon as the Dow retreats, I’m pulling the plug.
                      
The Fed Discount Rate Slash Is Not A Cure
On Monday we see a very nervous session with Dow Jones trading on a very narrow channel early session. Dow even managed to break down that channel as far as 12982ish although closed up 40+ points. The market, through this chart below, told us that the fed discount rate isn’t exactly the cure that they expect. Click to enlarge
As you can see on the chart above Dow yet again failed to pass its old trend resistance. If the market today opened below that line and tried to go green, that line will be proven a good shorting area (considering that at the time of this writing, European market is gloomy). If, however, the market opened above that gap I still believe that the opening price will still be a good shorting area just make sure you put a tight stop on all your position because we’re on a turning point here.
There’s not much of a trading opportunity here, but I will short BSC if it gapped up (only if dow failed to break its resistance). Click to enlarge
That line will be a good area to go short. Safe trading all
Aug 20th Trading Review
Yesterday’s trade isn’t really bad. I posted some about FSLR and ADSK in which both moved exactly as the chart told us. I opened a long FSLR Sept ‘07 85 Call @ $9.3, long ADSK Sept ‘07 42.5 call @ $3.6. I also have some impulse buy on AAPL Sept ‘07 125 call @ avg $5 and STP Sept ‘07 35 call @ $2.4. The end result consecutively I close all position @ $12.1, $3.7, $4.3, and $2.4 (all can be categorized as day trade). 2 out of 2 trade is a loss.
If you read this blog yesterday you will know that I only plan on buying FSLR and ADSK while AAPL and STP is more of an impulse buy. Impulse buy it turns out can hurt your trading performance, so always plan in advance how you want to trade the securities. Also, I liquidate almost all of my position when Dow Jones yesterday hit -60, I consider this move as Dow Jones breaking its intraday support. There’s nothing wrong with this move since I’m sticking to the plan that Dow Jones must hold 13000 or else. That prove that even if you made a right move (at least at the time), you can always make a loss in Wall Street.
All and all, I will still go with day trading in this highly uncertain market.
Lots of Trading Opportunities!
After the darkest, then pitch black, then finally a silver lining. I have a lot (I mean, A LOT) of stocks that is already heavily oversold and prepared to go higher. However, the dust hasn’t settled yet. The stocks are indeed poised higher but looking back through the last trading session where the market can open green and then ended up in red (or vice versa), it’s prudent just to sit back and watch the market closely today.
If it closes in the green with a short down tail, I believe we’re on an upbeat reversal. (PS: I’m eye-ing some technology stocks, especially those that doesn’t only close in the green on Friday, but also has a green candlestick — meaning that it closes higher than it opened)
Will the Dow Jones Rebound Stick?
Refer to this chart below (click to enlarge) that I made several days ago before The Fed’s announcement on discount-window interest rate cut.
However, after The Fed’s announcement, we can see a very big rebound which succeed a long doji the day before (my guess is, the news might already leaked and some smart money is using that to go shopping). The rebound however is rejected at its resistance level and the only way to confirm that all of the selling pressure has ceased is only when Dow can close above it’s descending triangle resistance. Anything lower than that can and will confirm the bearish move (click to enlarge).
Thursday late rally move is creating a kangaroo’s tail, a good reversal sign (in this case from bearish to bullish), but only valid if DJ30 can close between 13100-13200ish range. We’ll see about that tonight.
ADSK August 20th Play
One of the tech stock that I’m looking into is ADSK that just released their quarterly earning report and got more than 5% price boost because strong reports. Fundamentally, the company increased their Q3 outlook from $520M - $530M to $530M-$540M, well above the consensus of $528M. This only means that the company is certain that they can sell more of their software in the market above previous expectations. And seeing how the company is dominating the 3D Landscaping software market, it’s been no surprise that they increase their projections and receive an upgrade from Bear Stern from Peer Perform to Out Perform.
From technical point of view, this is a good play short term. Click at the chart.
From my point of view, ADSK is a good long candidate if it breaks the horizontal resistance line that has been hold since last January. The second position to open in this stock will be when the stock can close above the second resistance that I drew (see the chart). That line is the old trend line support that has been a new resistance from July till September last year.
I also have a long-term play on this stock based on the big picture. Click the chart below.
Buy only when the stock close above the long term horizontal support/resistance line. That line hasn’t been breached at least since early 2005 and will confirm an ascending triangle pattern with a very high target price. Still, in this market, be prudent and be patience as always.
FSLR Short-term Play Aug 20th
Another good play that I liked is FSLR. Just look at the chart, this stock is a screaming buy IF the dow jones can close green above 13100 today. Click to enlarge
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Permagnus.com is a financial weblog maintained by me (Oskar Syahbana) that contains information about capital market. It details the trades I made (let's face it, I'm bad at keeping a trading journal - so for me this is more like an open trading journal for everyone to see), real life trading lessons, and many more. Simply, it's a trading site with a human touch.
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