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Sometimes the signs of “bursting” can be obvious. In US housing market, the signs have been obvious for a few years until the bubble slowly crumble. In the case of China stockmarket, more likely it will be bursting in a “quick but painful” way, instead of “quick but painless.” You’re right, we don’t know when. Just wait and see.

Thanks.
~Jennie

We’re not out of the woods again, let me get back to that and write another post after the closing bell rang ;-)

Maybe, the market crash we witnessed earlier this decade never ended.

It took the Dow 25 years to recover from the 1929 crash, although it did finally rise above its January 14 2000 price last year, the NASDAQ is actually only half its all time high.

In the wake of the dotcom crash, 9/11, and Enron and Worldcom, central banks slashed interest and pumped money into the global economy. In any other era, inflation would have been rampent by now.

But, thanks to the Internet and globalisation - and China in particular, this time, ordinary inflation has not resulted. Instead we have seen asset inflation. And this has to unwind.

Couple that with signs the carry trade is coming to an end already, and the global economy has got a very hard time ahead.

the dow would be more easier to fluctuate and harder to predict than the S&P 500, it wouldnt represent the market conditions of the equities and stocks market generally. Dow tend to be more speculative and wilder (and not to mention lagging) to the whole us market. but anyway u would be easier to predict dow if u focusing on the biggest variabels of the 30stocks., the biggest contributor to the fluctuation. unless ure a deadly skilled trader it would be a very hard task to predict the movement daily basis., and even if it is i’d like to say the law of probabilities would take much more role in the daily basis forecast. but however i;m sure that ure a good player and observer that ur success forecast rate would be above 50%, but i suggest u do a linear regression test on the biggest factor of 30 to the dow, or seek for the correlation of historical dow movement to other index(shanghai as u mention or even S&P or other indexes). that would give u better picture.

i myself like to watch S&P more than Dow., atleast the S&P would represent the index performa, and the indicator of the market, its PE ratio, Its return rate and deviation would help me much better than the dow to interprete the market.

but again,.. im takin a different approaches from u., my method wont much help on daily basis as ur methods perhaps did.

anyway, greenspan remarks was quickly countered by his predesor bernanke., but this time greenspan’s remark wasnt as “controversial and thrilling” as his famous “irrational exuberance” remark. that would cause more hysteria than just what we saw last week. hahaha.

as long as oil not directing to 70-75, we would be holding-off, especially if u held some mining and energy at ur portfolio.

to michael baxter ;

indeed with the carry trade, but recent phenomenon on china and thailand capital policies which minimize the gate of in and out flow of the foreign capitals in the equities and invstnebt market seems taken by the
“global player” as a threatening to their funds, and resulting a shocking drop on both markets. effecting even jsx market, that would means what happen in global money burst were mostly by those arbitrageurs and carry trade practicioner of the hedge funds or such. but that speculative funds is also what had been “jacking-up market on the asian and other developing stock market countries”.

global economy would be facing a great time ahead,.. but i personally think it wouldnt be at this or next year. here in asia the optimism is still high, chine slowened its pace and i think more and more our market has developed to be more resistant and quick recovered. if the US market would facing its recession i would personally think the managers would seek for better opportunities here, where everything is easier to deal and manipulated, especially when ure carrying bunch millons of dollars. last US stock market recession was triggered by chaos in asian market (which is caused by the arbitrageurs and carry trade practioners). but now only for 10 years we exceeding those time when chaos come, thanks to the money the global brings. the nasdaq too, the falls was caused by a total hysteria to the dot.com growth, they were priced unrationally, too high from its value, thats why… so i think if the bubble is still on “current level” , the PE ratios of market is still on this moderately level. the market wouldnt be burst yet. yet.
but not on this level….

with regards to u all