Some Thoughts On PTBA Netting August 30th
Yesterday (August 30th), I tried my fate on PTBA (Bukit Asam, an Indonesian company that mainly produces coal). I bought the stocks at Rp3500 and I believed that the stock will go upwards for at least 4 points (around Rp100 rupiah). I believed that because of the following reason:
- Bank of Japan and The Fed have decided to postpone and stop the interest increase. This is a positive sentiment because people will pour more money on the stock market rather than in the bank or in a T-bill simply because they think the yield on stock market is bigger. This should send a positive signal to every stock market around the world.
- The regional market is looking good, Nikkei and Hang Seng gained more than 200 points on the opening session (mainly because the good sentiment above)
- Rupiah is gaining momentum towards USD because the pause in interest rate hike by The Fed
Those factors are usually pushing the Indonesian stock market to rally. But at that day, the price speaks differently. The stock slumps to Rp3400 (and thank God I already cut my losses at Rp3450). So what can we learn about this trade? Everything seems to be right in place. The rupiah is going stronger, the regional market is good, the global sentiment gives a heavenly smile. So what’s wrong? Where’s the menace?
After doing some basic research on the market psychology, I discovered that the market is still waiting for the inflation data from Bank of Indonesia due out at the end of August (or early September, not sure). Not only that, the market becomes very pessimistic about Indonesian stock (at that day) because of the negative sentiment sent out by ISAT.
As we know, ISAT (Indosat, one of the biggest telecommunication company in Indonesia) has their net income shaved more than 30% if compared with the same period last year, a very big blow for its stock price. Unfortunately, ISAT has a big market capitalization in JCI. A blow on its price is definitely a blow for the whole index.
And since many trader use index for their market indicators, when the index goes down, many of the stocks will go down too.
So next time when you are doing a trade, be sure to check not only the macro economic indicator (such as interest rates and the likes), but also check the potential big movers on the list. Will they move positively? Or negatively? They will surely decide where the market will go. Just imagine if Telkom (TLKM) goes bankrupt, will the market responds positively? I believe not.
PS: my trade on ANTM also got stuck by this ISAT effect (and also the inability of the market to decides its mind — waiting for the inflation data). Better be careful next time ;-)
