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Global Rally by Bernanke


I have to say that today’s global rally is mostly caused by Bernake’s statement that The Fed rate hike is closing to an end. Yesterday’s closing for Dow is almost plus 200 points, and for the rest of Asia? You can read it for your self.

asia

A weird thing about Nikkei is that now they already experienced a two days amazing spike while a day later, its market discounted twice because of the negatif impact by Dow Jones.

The question will still remains, how long will this occurs? The market is a very fragile market right now. The price of many commodities are uncertain especially for oil. The war on the middle-east has a very big chance to escallate to a higher level and probably as wide as country-to-country war. Bernake might change his mind after seeing the spike of oil price stimulate inflation in his country.

The obvious answer will be, no one will know. The safest bet now is to stay away from the market for sometime, get a life, breathe more air ;-)

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Kar, ajarin gw nginvest dong. Mula2, Nikkei itu apa? Ada hubungannya sama pabrik sepatu itu nggak?

jika butuh informasi tentang nikkei, hubungi haryanto - 91195610

thx

market return naik, risk premium naik, beta bisa turun, cost equity jadi naik deh, terus wacc naik. karna discounting factornya naik, value company di jepang boleh dikatakan saat ini lagi sementara turun. jadi exegenous oil shock memberikan pengaruh tersendiri bagi jepang. coba tunggu 3 bulan lagi dari statistik jepang, apakah unemployment rate naik mulai bulan ini? kalo iya berarti saat sekarang ini lagi peak-peaknya dan biasanya titik peak itu boleh dikatakan sebagai permulaan recession dalam suatu cycle.

Beta belum tentu turun juga sih, karena itu kan pengaruh antara gejolak harga saham dan gejolak harga pasar. Jadi kalau returnnya memang naik di atas harga rata - rata return saham, betanya bisa jadi malah naik.

WACC di Jepang pasti naik karena ada kenaikan tingkat suku bunga di Jepang dan itu inevitable karena inflasi mereka juga ternyata naik. Kalau yang mau masuk sekarang memang sudah agak telat sih, engga usah nunggu 3 bulan, just look at the price at the chart. Itu MA dan EMAnya sudah melebar ;)

PS: Baru ngeliat situsnya astrawatch, sangat unik ;)

Bernake? Kayaknya maksudnya Bernanke ya? (pronounced \ber-NAN-kee\, \bÉ™r-’nan-kÄ“\ or \bÉš.ˈnæn.ki\)

Nah itu dia, masih ambigu antara Bernake atau Bernanke… dan ternyata memang Bernanke (setelah liat halaman Princeton dia). My bad ;)… title changed.



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