Technical Analysis of the Day
It’s been quite a while but here’s my technical analysis for the day. Disclaimer: use it with your own discretion. This site and its author hold no responsibility of any damage being done using this analysis. Okay then, shall we continue?
JKSE
After 3 days of totalling a hundred points decline, last Friday, JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) has a minor rebound 33 points. This however doesn’t mean that the whole market has ended its bearish charade. My analysis is that the market will continue on the bearish trend for this month based on technical analysis (click for larger image)
However, the market provides a good opportunity for short-term trading since the stochastic oscillator indicates that the market will rally several points this week. All of the EMA 20, 50, and 90 already broken so the bearish trend will likely continue. My advice is if you wanted to trade the JCI on monthly period, buy it when it reaches the first fibonacci retracement at 23.6% (1304). This isn’t a strong retracement but nonetheless, it will do for short-term.
PGAS
Ah, one of my favorite stock. Very good for short-term trading. Medium volume and high delta between opening and closing. Here’s the chart (click for larger image).
As you can see from the above, EMA 20, 50, and 90 is already broken so we can safely still asume that the bearish trend will still continue for the time being (medium-term at least). The stochastic oscillator also indicates a good opportunity for swing-trader to take long position as this stock (like the market) will rally this week.
I think it’s safe to hold this stock for the long run (at least until January 2007) if the price breaks the third fibonacci retracement at 50% (12,000). Because the fundamentals of this company indicates that at that time (2007 that is), the stock should soar between Rp19,000 - Rp20,000. I suggest July as your buying season (if you’re not a risk taker).
PTBA
If PGAS is good for short-term trading (for the time being), then PTBA is suitable for you long-term trader (I put several thousand shares on this stock my self). And as for long-term trader, the technical analysis of this stock is not very relevant. But nonetheless, here’s the chart (click for larger image).
Now this stock already has a weak support at 23.6% (around Rp3,000) and with this week rally imminent, won’t be that hard to reach the 50% fibonacci retracement (around Rp3,400). This is a long term stock so I’m against short-term trading on this stock. The spread isn’t very big which means that most of your profit will go to your brokerage fees.
Last Friday’s jump will not be followed by today’s rally. If there’s any, I think the rally today will be under 10%.
